Abstract:

Physiological ecology simulation modelling of maize growth (MPESM) was used to simulate the variation of soil moisture, maize development and maize growth under twelve prescribed climate scenarios, which include doubling CO2, raising mean temperature by 1.5 ℃, 3.0 ℃ and 4.5 ℃, and changing precipitation by 0, +20%, -20%, and -40%. The simulated results were compared with that of the present climate, to assess the sensitivity of maize to climatic change. The analysis indicated that soil moisture is sensitive to reduced precipitation, maize development is sensitive to the rise of temperature, and maize growth is affected greatly by temperature elevation and precipitation variation, which cancel out the positive effects of CO2 elevation. It was found that with the severe change of climate, the leaf biomass, the female fringe biomass, and the leaf area index would decline greatly, and the biomass of stem and root would increase greatly. The average yield of maize will decline between 5% and 30%.

全球气候变化对沈阳地区春玉米生长的可能影响
尚宗波
（中国科学院植物研究所植被数量生态学开放实验室，北京100093）

摘要：利用玉米 (Zeamays L .)生长生理生态学模拟模型 (MPESM) ,分别模拟了未来气候变化的 12种气候条件下(CO2 浓度倍增 ,平均气温上升 1.5℃、3.0℃和 4.5℃ ,降水量增加 2 0 %、减少 2 0 %、减少 40 %和降水量不变 ) ,沈阳地区土壤湿度、玉米发育和玉米生长的变化 ,并与当前气候条件下进行了比较 ,以评价玉米生长对各种气候因子变化的敏感性和全球气候变化下沈阳地区春玉米的生长趋势。研究表明 :土壤湿度对降水减少反应较敏感 ,玉米发育对气温升高反应较敏感 ,升温和降水改变对玉米生长都有很大影响 ,足以抵消CO2 浓度增高产生的施肥效应。随着气候变化程度的增加 ,叶和雌穗生物量以及叶面积指数会降低 ,而茎和根生物量则会增加。未来气候变化下玉米平均产量会有所降低 ,减产幅度在 5 %～ 30 %之间。

关键词： 全球气候变化；玉米生长；生理生态学模型

Key words: global climate change, maize growth, physiological ecology model