Abstract: Assessment of the sensitivity of natural and agricultural vegetation in China to global change based on the natural vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) model and the agricultural vegetation NPP model had revealed a decreasing trend from the southeast to the northwest in a ribbon shaped distribution for the terrestrial ecosystem NPP, where the center of low NPP was formed in Xinjiang area under all possible conditions of climate change. In China the productivity of the ter- restrial ecosystem would increase by 1 to 2 t DW· hm-2· a-l in moist area where the temperature in- creased by 2 ℃ with no change of precipitation. It would increase by 0.5 to 3.0 t DW· hm-2· a-l especially in arid and semiarid areas where the temperature increased by 2 ℃ and precipitation in- creased by 20%; and would increase by 0.5 to 1.0 t DW· hm-2· a-1 in moist area, decreased 0.5 to 2.0 t DW· hm-2· a-1 in arid and semiarid areas especially in the arid area where the temperature increased by 2 ℃ and precipitation decreased by 20%. The results indicated that water was a key factor to terrestrial ecosystem in China.

Key words: Terrestrial ecosystem, Net primary productivity, Global change, Sensitivity